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Incorporating the effects of changes in vegetation functioning and CO2 on water availability in plant habitat models

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Author

  • Sophie Rickebusch
  • Wilfried Thuiller
  • Thomas Hickler
  • Miguel B. Araujo
  • Martin Sykes
  • Oliver Schweiger
  • Bruno Lafourcade

Summary, in English

The direct effects of CO2 level changes on plant water availability are usually ignored in plant habitat models. We compare traditional proxies for water availability with changes in soil water (fAWC) predicted by a process-based ecosystem model, which simulates changes in vegetation structure and functioning, including CO2 physiological effects. We modelled current and future habitats of 108 European tree species using ensemble forecasting, comprising six habitat models, two model evaluation methods and two climate change scenarios. The fAWC models' projections are generally more conservative. Potential habitats shrink significantly less for boreo-alpine and alpine species. Changes in vegetation functioning and CO2 on plant water availability should therefore be taken into account in plant habitat change projections.

Publishing year

2008

Language

English

Pages

556-559

Publication/Series

Biology letters

Volume

4

Issue

5

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Royal Society Publishing

Topic

  • Physical Geography

Keywords

  • ensemble forecasting
  • BIOMOD
  • soil water content
  • CO2 effect
  • habitat models
  • climate change

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 1744-9561