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Simulating river flow to the Baltic Sea from climate simulations over the past millennium

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Author

  • L. Phil Graham
  • Jonas Olsson
  • Erik Kjellstrom
  • Jorgen Rosberg
  • Sara-Sofia Hellstrom
  • Ronny Berndtsson

Summary, in English

The aim of this study was to reconstruct river flow to the Baltic Sea using data from different periods during the past thousand years. A hydrological model coupled to simulations from climate models was used to estimate river flow. A "millennium" simulation of past climate from the ECHO-G coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model provided climatological inputs. Results from this global model were downscaled with the RCA3 regional climate model over northern Europe. Temperature and precipitation from the downscaled simulation results were then used in the HBV hydrological model to simulate river flows to the Baltic Sea for the periods 1000-1199 and 1551-1929. These were compared with observations for the period 1921-2002. A general conclusion from this work is that although climate has varied during the past millennium, variability in annual river flow to the Baltic Sea does not appear more pronounced in recent years than during the previous millennium, or vice versa.

Publishing year

2009

Language

English

Pages

173-182

Publication/Series

Boreal Environment Research

Volume

14

Issue

1

Document type

Conference paper

Publisher

Finnish Environment Institute

Topic

  • Water Engineering

Conference name

5th Study Conference on BALTEX

Conference date

2007-06-04 - 2007-06-08

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 1239-6095