Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation of a Multi-Factor Jump Diffusion Model for Power Prices
Author
Summary, in English
In this paper we generalize the electricity spot price model of Lucia and Schwartz by a two-factor model with jumps and stochastic volatility. We estimate the model on daily spot price data from the Nordic market using an approach that combines traditional statistical methods with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Results show that the model captures most of the trajectorial and the statistical characteristics of the electricity spot price. Further, we find that the inclusion of stochastic volatility is crucial to separate spikes from the normal price process. Moreover, we estimate that the correlation between the spot price and its stochastic volatility is negative.
Department/s
Publishing year
2008
Language
English
Pages
65-90
Publication/Series
Journal of Energy Markets
Volume
1
Issue
4
Document type
Journal article
Publisher
Incisive Media
Topic
- Economics
Keywords
- stochastic volatility
- spot price
- electricity markets
- spikes
Status
Published
ISBN/ISSN/Other
- ISSN: 1756-3615