Time series modelling and trophic interactions: rainfall, vegetation and un gulate dynamics
Author
Summary, in English
Abstract Time series analysis is a tool that is now
commonly used when analysing the states of natural populations.
This is a particularly complicated task for ungulates,
since the data involved usually contain large
observation errors and span short periods of time relative to
the species’ life expectancies. Here we develop a method
that expands on previous analyses, combining statistical
state space modelling with biological mechanistic modelling.
This enables biological interpretability of the statistical
parameters. We used this method to analyse African
ungulate census data, and it revealed some clarifying patterns.
The dynamics of one group of species were generally
independent of density and strongly affected by rainfall,
while the other species were governed by a delayed density
dependence and were relatively unaffected by rainfall
variability. Dry season rainfall was more influential than
wet season rainfall, which can be interpreted as indicating
that adult survival is more important than recruitment in
governing ungulate dynamics.
commonly used when analysing the states of natural populations.
This is a particularly complicated task for ungulates,
since the data involved usually contain large
observation errors and span short periods of time relative to
the species’ life expectancies. Here we develop a method
that expands on previous analyses, combining statistical
state space modelling with biological mechanistic modelling.
This enables biological interpretability of the statistical
parameters. We used this method to analyse African
ungulate census data, and it revealed some clarifying patterns.
The dynamics of one group of species were generally
independent of density and strongly affected by rainfall,
while the other species were governed by a delayed density
dependence and were relatively unaffected by rainfall
variability. Dry season rainfall was more influential than
wet season rainfall, which can be interpreted as indicating
that adult survival is more important than recruitment in
governing ungulate dynamics.
Department/s
Publishing year
2007
Language
English
Pages
287-296
Publication/Series
Population Ecology
Volume
49
Issue
4
Document type
Journal article
Publisher
Springer
Topic
- Biological Sciences
Keywords
- Population dynamics
- Mechanistic model
- Kalman filter
- Time series data
Status
Published
Research group
- Theoretical Population Ecology and Evolution Group
ISBN/ISSN/Other
- ISSN: 1438-390X