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| Title | Uncertainty and Risk Analysis in Fire Safety Engineering |
| Author/s | Håkan Frantzich |
| Department/s |
Fire Safety Engineering and Systems Safety
|
| Full-text | Available as PDF |
| Defence date | 1998-03-06 |
| Defence time | 10:15 |
| Defence place | John Ericssons väg 1, Lund, lecture room A |
| Opponent | Prof. T. J. Shields |
| Publication/Series | Report / Department of Fire Safety Engineering, Lund Institute of Technology, Lund University |
| Publishing year | 1998 |
| Volume | 1016 |
| Pages | 206 |
| Document type | Dissertation |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Dept. of Fire Safety Eng., Lund Institute of Technology, Lund University, Box 118, SE-221 00 Lund, Sweden, |
| Popular science abstract Swedish |
Två riskanalysmetoder presenteras med vilka risken för personskador till följd av brand kan uppskattas. Metoderna, standard QRA (Quantitative Risk Analysis) och utökad QRA skiljer sig åt varigenom osäkerheter i ingående variabler behandlas. Osäkerheter ingår i princip i alla variabler och måste behandlas på något rationellt sätt. Standard QRA-metoden förutsätter att en separat osäkerhetsanalys genomförs som ett komplement för att belysa inverkan av osäkerheter i riskbedömningen. I den utökade QRA-metoden ingår osäkerhetsanalysen som en integrerad del. Båda metoderna är applicerade på ett beräkningsfall där personsäkerheten på en vårdavdelning på ett sjukhus studerats. Avhandlingen beskriver också några metoder för att genomföra osäkerhetsanalyser. De metoder som behandlas är metoden med säkerhetsindex ß samt två numeriska samplingsmetoder. Dessutom presenteras en metod med vilken dimensionerande värden för utrymningsberäkningar kan tas fram. Dessa dimensionerande värden tas fram givet att den resulterande risken för personskador har kvantifierats. |
| Abstract English |
Two Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) methods are presented which can be used to quantify the risk to occupants in, for example, a building in which a fire has broken out. The extended QRA considers the inherent uncertainty in the variables explicitly. The standard QRA does not consider the uncertainties in the variables and must be complemented by a sensitivity analysis or an uncertainty analysis. Both methods provide risk measures, such as individual risk and FN curves. In the extended QRA these are presented in terms of statistical distributions. The standard QRA is more simple to perform and has been used extensively in many engineering fields. Both QRA methods have been applied to an example, structured with the event tree technique, to determine the risk to patients on a hospital ward. In addition to the two risk analysis methods, separate uncertainty analysis methods are also presented. Both stochastic uncertainty and knowledge uncertainty are considered in the analysis, separately and combined. The importance of the variables is also investigated. As both QRA methods are rather complex to use, a more simple method using design values in deterministic equations would be preferable for fire safety design purposes. A method of deriving these design values, based on quantified risk, is presented and complemented with an example which provides design values for a class of buildings. When these design values are known, so-called partial coefficients can be derived. |
| Subject |
Technology and Engineering |
| Keywords | fire engineering design, event tree, reliability index, FOSM, Monte Carlo simulation, Risk analysis, uncertainty analysis, response surface., Technological sciences, Teknik |
| ISBN/ISSN/Other |
ISSN: 1102-8246 ISRN: LUTVDG/TVBB-1016-SE |
