European car manufacturing, which currently accounts for six per cent of the European Union's GDP, risks becoming a thing of the past unless Europe is able to start producing its own electric cars and batteries. Twenty per cent of new cars currently produced in Europe are electric. The EU is aiming to phase out internal combustion engines in vehicles by 2035.
Lithium is the most important mineral in modern electric batteries, which are used in consumer electronics (phones, power tools, watches) and vehicles. Other metals such as cobalt and nickel can be substituted, but not lithium. While research on primarily sodium (salt) is underway, those batteries have lower performance and the path to commercialisation is uncertain. In other words, whoever owns the mining and refining of key metals has a strong hand. It is China who holds those cards.
“The Chinese state has been providing strategic support funding to Chinese green technology companies for many years. The EU has a goal of boosting its own production and may have to do something similar in order to catch up. The investment cost and risk are too high for individual countries,” says André Månberger, a researcher and expert on critical metals at Lund University in Sweden.
André and former visiting doctoral student Qifan Xia have mapped out trade dependence on the coveted mineral. The results confirm China's dominance and verify the intricate interdependencies between the countries of the world, especially as supply is not only about extraction but also about refining, component manufacturing and, ultimately, battery production itself.
“The risk of China's dominance is not only that Europe will lose its domestic automotive industry and thus its prosperity, but also that we could become a target for blackmail in the event of global conflicts,” says André Månberger.
In a new study published in Cell Reports Sustainability, he and Qifan summarised the deposits identified by geologists in Europe, China and the United States that have the potential to be mined. A few have been identified in Europe, but commercial extraction is yet to begin. The deposits are mainly found in Spain, Portugal, Germany, France, Serbia and Finland.
Månberger concludes that if these were to be exploited, the EU could more than halve its future import dependence. The researchers compared the EU's lithium needs in the 2030s with the amount the mines could produce in that period. In weight terms, this amounts to 325,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate around the year 2030.
However, the path to large-scale lithium mining across Europe is fraught with conflicting objectives. These include investment costs, opposition from local residents, the risk of chemicals leaking into groundwater, the impact on nature and various liability issues.
“Promising technologies are being tested in Germany where lithium extraction is recovered from geothermal energy sources. When hot water is pumped up for use in gheating, lithium comes up too as a “free gift.” New membrane technologies can filter this lithium out and it can then be used. This method reduces the impact on nature and the risk of conflict with neighbours, but unfortunately these deposits are only a small part of the projects and conventional mines will also be needed if Europe is to reduce its dependence on imports.”
André Månberger hopes his study will demonstrate the significant potential of extraction in Europe.
“The significant potential within Europe may mean that not all deposits need to be developed and hopefully this knowledge can contribute to a discussion about how different objectives are prioritised.”
Import independence is not an end in itself, he emphasises, and more studies are needed that also examine other possibilities such as diversifying imports and reducing the growth in demand by using materials more efficiently.
But does Europe really have a chance of getting domestic production of electric batteries off the ground? China's products are so cheap, and there is even talk of them dumping goods in Europe, especially if the US tariffs go through.
“It will not be easy. The EU is now working on several levels to develop entire battery value chains within the EU, with the aim of increasing competitiveness. Battery know-how could play an important part in the development and production of the electric vehicles of the future. If the energy transition results in Europe losing significant industries, it remains to be seen whether the acceptance of ambitious climate targets will endure.”
Footnote: An existing small mine in Portugal extracts lithium for the production of glass and ceramics. It is insignificant in this context.
