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A model for stochastic drift in memory strength to account for judgments of learning

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Author

Summary, in English

Previous research has shown that judgments of learning (JOLs) made immediately after encoding have a low correlation with actual cued-recall performance, whereas the correlation is high for delayed,judgments. In this article, the authors propose a formal theory describing the stochastic drift of memory strength over the retention interval to account for the delayed-JOL effect. This is done by first decomposing the aggregated memory strength into exponential functions with slow and fast memory traces. The mean aggregated memory strength shows power-function forgetting curves. The drift of the memory strength is large for immediate JOLs (causing a low predictability) and weak for delayed JOLs (causing a high predictability). Consistent with empirical data, the model makes a novel prediction of JOL asymmetry, or that immediate weak JOLs are more predictive of future performance than are immediate strong JOLs. The JOL distributions for immediate and delayed JOLs are also accounted for.

Department/s

Publishing year

2005

Language

English

Pages

932-950

Publication/Series

Psychological Review

Volume

112

Issue

4

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

American Psychological Association (APA)

Topic

  • Psychology (excluding Applied Psychology)

Keywords

  • metamemory
  • judgments of learning
  • model
  • stochastic drift

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 0033-295X