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An Evacuation Decision Model based on perceived risk, social influence and behavioural uncertainty

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Author

Summary, in English

The behaviour of people in the first stage of an evacuation can have a significant impact on the time required to reach a safe place. This behaviour is known in literature as pre-evacuation behaviour and it has been studied for many different evacuating scenarios. Despite the large number of studies, the representation of this behaviour is often oversimplified in most of the existing evacuation models. This paper aims to introduce a novel Evacuation Decision Model, allowing predicting the pre-evacuation state of an evacuee among three possible states (normal, investigation and evacuation) considering perceived risk for an evacuation scenario. The proposed model assumes that evacuees’ perceived risk is affected by several environmental and social cues as well as by demographics and personal characteristics of evacuees. The concept of behavioural uncertainty is also included in the model and a formulation to calibrate the proposed model using a likelihood function is then provided.

Publishing year

2016-08

Language

English

Pages

226-242

Publication/Series

Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory

Volume

66

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Elsevier

Topic

  • Other Civil Engineering

Keywords

  • Evacuation modelling
  • Pre-evacuation behaviour
  • Decision making
  • Behavioural uncertainty
  • Ordered logit

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 1569-190X