Treatment of Uncertainty in Risk Based Regulations and Standards for Risk Analysis
Author
Summary, in English
The role of quantitative risk analysis as a foundation for decision making, regarding hazardous activities and establishments, has gained increased importance during the last decades. When performing a quantitative risk analysis, a wide range of uncertainties will inevitably be introduced during the process. The impact of these uncertainties must somehow be addressed if the analysis is to serve as a tool in the decision-making process. The objective of this report is to present a summary of how issues of uncertainty are dealt with in existing safety regulations, and in existing standards for risk analysis and management. Using this summary as a guide, various aspects of uncertainty are discussed. E.g. what role will uncertainty play in the decision-making process? Is there a need for identifying and separating different kinds of uncertainty (e.g. aleatory, or stochastic uncertainty, vs. epistemic, or knowledge based uncertainty) while creating the foundation for decision-making? Will we always be dependent on expert judgement while dealing with these issues?
The work behind this paper is the first step in a research project with the objective to produce the basis for a Swedish Standard regarding treatment of uncertainties in quantitative risk analyses. The project is to be completed by the end of the year 2001.
The work behind this paper is the first step in a research project with the objective to produce the basis for a Swedish Standard regarding treatment of uncertainties in quantitative risk analyses. The project is to be completed by the end of the year 2001.
Department/s
- Division of Fire Safety Engineering
- Lund University Centre for Risk Assessment and Management (LUCRAM)
- Division of Risk Management and Societal Safety
Publishing year
2000
Language
English
Publication/Series
LUTVDG/TVBB--3116--SE
Full text
- Available as PDF - 267 kB
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Document type
Report
Publisher
[Publisher information missing]
Topic
- Building Technologies
- Other Civil Engineering
- Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Status
Published
Report number
3116
ISBN/ISSN/Other
- ISSN: 1402-3504