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Uncertainties in evacuation modelling: Current flaws and future improvements

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Author

Editor

  • Karen Boyce

Summary, in English

During the whole evacuation modelling process, there are uncertainties in every task. To date, scarce literature is available on the assessment of those uncertainties and evacuation model users generally do not present this information consistently (if omitted at all) in evacuation modelling studies. Considering the classification made in other modelling fields (e.g. fire modelling), uncertainties are distributed along three main steps of evacuation modelling, namely: 1) definition of the input, 2) the evacuation modelling per se, 3) the analysis of the output. This paper focuses on identifying and classifying the uncertainties in these three steps. This paper presents different solutions to address evacuation modelling uncertainties, such as the use of Design of Experiments (DoE) techniques and the use of functional analysis.

Publishing year

2015

Language

English

Pages

185-196

Publication/Series

[Host publication title missing]

Document type

Conference paper

Publisher

Interscience Communications Ltd

Topic

  • Civil Engineering

Keywords

  • Evacuation
  • modelling
  • Egress
  • uncertainty

Conference name

6th international symposium: Human Behaviour in Fire, 2015

Conference date

2015-09-28 - 2015-09-30

Conference place

Cambridge, United Kingdom

Status

Published

Research group

  • Evacuation

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISBN: 978-0-9933933-0-3