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From probabilistics to determinism: an essay on risk assessment and decisionmaking in sociotechnical systems

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Author

  • Gustaf Östberg

Summary, in English

Probabilistic analysis is the usual starting point for sociotechnical risk assessments aimed at deciding whether or not a particular risk is acceptable. However, the available probabilistic evidence is usually insufficient as a basis for such decisions, and so the assessment has to be supplemented by a judgemental process of a more deterministic nature. This concluding phase in decisionmaking is essentially non-rational, involving amongst other things intuition and image formation. The conceptual incompatibility between the final stage in risk assessment and the preceding probabilistic analysis means that it is not possible to arrive at an overall quantitative account of the decisionmaking process.

Publishing year

2004

Language

English

Pages

96-109

Publication/Series

Interdisciplinary Science Reviews

Volume

29

Issue

1

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Maney Publishing

Topic

  • Applied Mechanics

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 0308-0188