The browser you are using is not supported by this website. All versions of Internet Explorer are no longer supported, either by us or Microsoft (read more here: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-365/windows/end-of-ie-support).

Please use a modern browser to fully experience our website, such as the newest versions of Edge, Chrome, Firefox or Safari etc.

Downscaling of GCM forecasts to streamflow over Scandinavia

På svenska

Author

Summary, in English

A seasonal forecasting technique to produce probabilistic and deterministic streamflow forecasts for 23 basins in Norway and northern Sweden is developed in this work. Large scale circulation and moisture fields, forecasted by the ECHAM4.5 model 4 months in advance, are used to forecast spring flows. The technique includes model output statistics (MOS) based on a non-linear Neural Network (NN) approach. Results show that streamflow forecasts from Global Circulation Model (GCM) predictions, for the Scandinavia region are viable and highest skill values were found for basins located in south-western Norway. The physical interpretation of the forecasting skill is that stations close to the Norwegian coast are directly exposed to prevailing winds from the Atlantic ocean, which constitute the principal source of predictive information from the atmosphere on the seasonal timescale.

Publishing year

2008

Language

English

Pages

17-26

Publication/Series

Hydrology Research

Volume

39

Issue

1

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

IWA Publishing

Topic

  • Water Engineering

Keywords

  • neural networks
  • statistic
  • model output
  • general circulation model
  • downscaling
  • forecasting

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 1998-9563