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Exchange Rate Dynamics Revisited: A Panel Data Test of the Fractional Integration Order

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Author

Summary, in English

We test the possibility that exchange rates from nine developed countries have a unit root against the alternate possibility that they are fractionally integrated. Theoretically, exchange rates are only expected to follow a random walk under restrictive assumptions. However, most traditional unit root tests cannot reject a unit root in exchange rates, and time series tests that allow for fractional integration have given inconclusive results. To increase the power of the test of the integration order we develop two panel data tests of the fractional integration order. Monte Carlo simulations show that these tests are correctly sized and have relatively high power compared to other similar tests. Moreover, our empirical results show that we can reject a unit root in exchange rates with a high probability, but the integration order is close to one. This indicates that exchange rates are mean-reverting, although the reversion is slow, resulting in long swings.

Publishing year

2014

Language

English

Pages

389-409

Publication/Series

Empirical Economics

Volume

47

Issue

2

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Physica Verlag

Topic

  • Economics

Keywords

  • Nominal exchange rates
  • Panel data
  • Fractional integration
  • Long memory

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 0377-7332