The browser you are using is not supported by this website. All versions of Internet Explorer are no longer supported, either by us or Microsoft (read more here: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-365/windows/end-of-ie-support).

Please use a modern browser to fully experience our website, such as the newest versions of Edge, Chrome, Firefox or Safari etc.

Poll of polls: A compositional loess model

På svenska

Author

Summary, in English

A large number of polls on party preferences are published today. In order to get an estimate of the changes in political opinion, the polls may be combined into a poll of polls. We discuss a method for combining polls using the fact that they are compositions and respecting the properties of the compositional sample space (the simplex). The method is easily implemented and the estimate may be computed in linear time. We provide an example with Swedish data from year 2007 to 2010. The method also allows us to present the deviations between the estimated compositions and the observed. In the

data set, we note e.g. differences between different polling institutes.

Publishing year

2014

Language

English

Pages

301-310

Publication/Series

Scandinavian Journal of Statistics

Volume

41

Issue

2

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Wiley-Blackwell

Topic

  • Probability Theory and Statistics

Keywords

  • party preferences
  • compositional weighted least sum of squares
  • simplex
  • smoothing

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 1467-9469