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Simulating Regional Vegetation-climate Dynamics for Middle America: Tropical Versus Temperate Applications

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Author

Summary, in English

Regional vegetation-climate modelling studies have typically focused on boreal or temperate ecosystems in North America and Europe, almost completely overlooking tropical ecosystems. We present the first results of simulated regional vegetation-climate dynamics in Middle America as simulated by the model, LPJ-GUESS. The Kappa statistic indicated poor agreement, with a Kappa value of 0.301. When we modified the Kappa statistic by aggregating cell sizes and using generalized biomes, the Kappa value increased to 0.543, indicating a fair agreement. Total LAI simulated from LPJ-GUESS was strongly correlated to remotely sensed LAI values (r=0.75). Our simulations indicate that fire frequency was overestimated in tropical moist forests and underestimated in savannas. This underestimation of fire resulted in an over-simulation of dry tropical forest at the expense of savanna. We highlight additional reasons for the initially poor representation of vegetation in Middle America, including factors such as non-parameterized plant functional types (desert shrub, cacti, and other succulents), rugged topography, and an insufficient representation of soil.

Publishing year

2013

Language

English

Pages

567-577

Publication/Series

Biotropica

Volume

45

Issue

5

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Wiley-Blackwell

Topic

  • Physical Geography

Keywords

  • fire dynamics
  • Kappa statistic
  • leaf area index
  • LPJ-GUESS
  • plant
  • functional types
  • remote-sensing
  • tropical and arid ecosystems

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 0006-3606