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Are there house effects in Swedish polls? A compositional approach

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Author

Summary, in English

We investigate if we can find evidence of house effects in Swedish political opinion polls from 2006 to 2014. In order to respect the inherent restriction of the simplex sample space, we apply compositional data analysis and Aitchison geometry. We use compositional locally weighted regression (C-loess) to estimate the share of voters for each party at given dates, a poll of polls. The estimated shares are compared to the poll(s) for that date using simplicial distances and compositional deviations (inverse perturbation). We can conclude that neither the mean simplicial distance nor the mean compositional deviation are equal for all polling organisations, also when controlling for different sample sizes and limiting the sample to only the last two years.

Publishing year

2015

Language

English

Publication/Series

Working Papers in Statistics

Issue

1

Document type

Working paper

Publisher

Department of Statistics, Lund university

Topic

  • Probability Theory and Statistics

Keywords

  • House effects
  • Compositional data analysis
  • Simplicial distance
  • Aitchison geometry
  • Polls
  • Sweden
  • Poll of polls

Status

Published