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Do Oil Prices Predict Economic Growth? New Global Evidence

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Author

Summary, in English

In this paper, we test whether oil price predicts economic growth for 28 developed and 17 developing countries. We use predictability tests that account for the key features of the data, namely, persistency, endogeneity, and heteroskedasticity. Our analysis considers a large number of countries, shows evidence of more out-of-sample predictability with nominal than real oil prices, finds in-sample predictability to be independent of the use of nominal and real prices, and reveals greater evidence of predictability for developed countries.

Publishing year

2014

Language

English

Pages

137-146

Publication/Series

Energy Economics

Volume

41

Issue

January

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

Elsevier

Topic

  • Economics

Keywords

  • Economic growth
  • Predictability
  • Oil price

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 0140-9883